Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): It’s the first weekly politics chat of 2018!!! Happy New Year!
As a New Year’s present, I got you all a game that will very likely make everyone look foolish by the end of 2018: I’m going to ask each of you to make three political predictions — one that you think has a 10 percent chance of happening in 2018, one that has a 50 percent chance and one with a 90 percent chance.
Everyone got it?
harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): Okie dokie.
perry (Perry Bacon Jr., senior writer): Yes.
hilary.krieger (Hilary Krieger, Washington editor): I’d say there’s