In this week’s politics chat, we debate what we can say now about the 2020 presidential election. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Hi, people!
harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): Hey, friends!
micah: This article, “Trump is on track to win reelection,” sparked some heated debate in the office. Nate thought it was dead-on and brilliant. I didn’t.
natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): #fakenews
micah: So let’s argue it out! The idea here isn’t to pick apart this one piece, but more to use it as a vehicle to discuss what we know at this very early date about President Trump’s re-election prospects. So, is Trump more likely than not to