Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms?

[ Originally published on this site as post ]

Democrats got the best of Republicans during the 2017 election season, outperforming expectations in special elections across the country and easily winning the only two governors races. Much of that success came down to turnout — the Democratic base came out and voted.

It’s now 2018, though. A midterm year. And if you’ve followed politics recently, you’re used to hearing what may seem like an immutable law of elections: Midterm turnout favors the GOP. That was incredibly true in the last two midterm cycles, 2010 and 2014. And it’s true generally too. But it masks an important factor: which party holds the White House.1

Take a look at the table below. It shows — for every midterm since 1978 —